Distributed Future Energy Scenarios by Local Authorities

Introduction

The Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) are primarily a series of granular scenario-based forecasts for key drivers of demand and generation technologies whose deployment are essential to achieving Net Zero. This includes EVs, decarbonised heating such as heat pumps and district heat networks, and forms of renewable energy generation and storage. For each driver, a range of forecasts are produced under different assumptions.

The 2025 DFES datasets, detailing the how many, by when, and where, for a number of low carbon technologies drivers at LAD level until 2050.

Methodological Approach

• Adopted the new pathway framework published by the National Energy System Operator in their 2024 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) to update our scenarios.
• All of Great Britain’s Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) have used the new pathway framework published by the National Energy System Operator in their “Future Energy Scenarios 2024: Pathways to Net Zero” to update their Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES).
• This framework includes three potential energy pathways to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050, along with an additional counterfactual scenario.
• These pathways represent different positions with regards to their speed of decarbonisation and level of societal change. The move to pathways is an approach that enables long term planning.
• In alignment with this change, we have updated our 2025 DFES to reflect the pathways framework, incorporating locally-influenced, bottom-up insights to support robust network planning.
• We have developed bespoke scenarios for each driver of demand and generation and constructed four overarching scenario worlds that align with the narratives of the pathways from the National Energy System Operator.
• We have integrated the latest local area energy plans inputs into all three of our Net Zero scenarios - ensuring that our planning reflects the most current regional insights.

Quality Control Statement

• Cross-year and cross-scenario consistency checks.
• Glossaries and metadata provided for transparency.

Assurance Statement

The Open Data Team has checked to ensure data accuracy and consistency.

Other

Download dataset information: Metadata (JSON)

Definitions of key terms related to this dataset can be found in the Open Data Portal Glossary: Open Data Portal Glossary

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