Introduction
Our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios Network Scenario Headroom Report (DFES NSHR) is part of our Network Development Plan (NDP). The full NDP is published every other year, and the DFES NSHR is updated annually.
The 1 May 2025 DFES NSHR dataset uses the network loading from our the Long Term Development Statement November 2024 as baseline, and our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios 2025 for the future scenarios of demand and generation.
For further information on the NDP and the methodology to produce the DFES NSHR dataset please see Long Term Development Statement and Network Development Plan Landing Page
The DFES NSHR indicates the amount of unused network capacity for demand and generation over time to 2050 on our Bulk Supply Point and Primary substations. It shows where we may need to further reinforce our substations or procure flexibility services beyond our existing plans, if the energy system develops as indicated in each of our scenarios. Since the report indicates unused substation capacity in each year, please note unused capacity may be contractually committed to customers. Those seeking connection should contact our connections gateway to understand the latest view of available capacity.
The headroom tables show firm capacity - more capacity may be available for customers on a non-firm, flexible or curtailable connection.
The demand headroom tables reflect our latest firm capacity figures for demand, consistent with the May 2025 LTDS. The generation headroom tables reflect the equipment ratings in the November 2024 LTDS.
As noted in the methodology, unused substation capacity (headroom) is indicative and may be already contractually-committed to specific customers.
Methodological Approach
- Data Collection: Gathering data from various sources, including historical usage patterns, projected growth in renewable energy, and changes in regulatory frameworks.
- Forecasting: The process begins with forecasting future network loads and demands. This often involves scenario planning to predict how energy consumption and generation will evolve to 2050. The forecast methodology is reviewed periodically to incorporate new data, stakeholder feedback, and changes in energy policy or technology. Stakeholder inputs including local authorities, developers, and energy providers are included to ensure the plans align with community needs and regulatory requirements.
- Analysis of Network Capacity: Assessing the current capacity of the network to identify areas where reinforcement or upgrades are necessary. This includes our planning teams evaluating substations and distribution lines.
- Option Development: Creating potential solutions to address identified constraints. This may involve traditional reinforcement methods or exploring flexibility services that can alleviate pressure on the network.
- Reporting: Compiling findings into a structured report that outlines the methodology, assumptions, and planned interventions. This report is typically made available to the public for transparency.
- Review and Update: The methodology is reviewed periodically to incorporate new data, stakeholder feedback, and changes in energy policy or technology.
Quality Control Statement
Quality Control Measures include:
- Verification steps to match features only with confirmed functional locations.
- Manual review and correction of data inconsistencies.
- Use of additional verification steps to ensure accuracy in the methodology.
Assurance Statement
The Open Data Team and Network Insights Team worked together to ensure data accuracy and consistency.
Other
Download dataset information: Metadata (JSON)
Definitions of key terms related to this dataset can be found in the Open Data Portal Glossary: https://ukpowernetworks.opendatasoft.com/pages/glossary/